Route 23 Farmers Are Planting Into a Fourth Year of Losses

Farmers along Route 23 and Harmony Road are preparing to plant crops that will lose money. For the fourth consecutive year, the University of Illinois farmdoc projects negative average returns for corn and soybean rotations on cash-rented land across every region of the state. ¹ The projected losses range from $100 to $200 per acre.

The cause is a trade war. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, imposed in 2025, triggered retaliatory duties on American soybeans, corn, and pork. Illinois is the nation's largest soybean producer, according to USDA data, and China was its biggest customer, purchasing $805 million worth of Illinois soybeans in a typical year. ² With Chinese buyers redirecting to Brazil and Argentina, prices have fallen below break-even for many growers. ³

The squeeze extends beyond lost markets. Duties on imported fertilizer have raised costs by roughly $100 per ton, according to AgAmerica, an agricultural lending firm. ⁴ Steel and parts tariffs have increased the price of tractors, combines, and replacement parts. Revenue is falling while costs are rising.

At the University of Illinois Extension's McHenry County Agronomy Update on February 18, the projections were the central topic. ⁵ Area producers and certified crop advisers reviewed the same crop budget data now shaping planting decisions across the county.

Won't come close to covering the losses farmers have suffered in the form of lost markets, lower commodity prices, and higher input costs.

Jerry Costello II, Illinois Agriculture Director, to Capitol News Illinois

Illinois Agriculture Director Jerry Costello II told Capitol News Illinois that the $12 billion federal aid package announced in December "won't come close to covering the losses farmers have suffered in the form of lost markets, lower commodity prices, and higher input costs." ⁶ He described current conditions as "rivaling a scenario like we saw in the '80s for agriculture." ⁷

Rep. Bill Foster, the Democrat who represents Marengo in Congress, has said Trump's trade wars "turned [our allies] towards other markets, like China and Argentina," a shift that has directly undercut Illinois soybean growers. ⁸ Senator Tammy Duckworth has called the tariffs "a self-inflicted economic catastrophe." ⁹

In Congress, Republican farm-state members have pushed to attach $15 billion in additional tariff relief to a military spending package connected to the Iran conflict. ¹⁰ GOP leadership has blocked those efforts. The Farm Bill reauthorization, which could restructure crop subsidies, is not expected until late 2026.

Planting decisions for the 2026 season are being made now, based on prices that may not have finished moving. The $15 billion relief measure remains stalled with no vote scheduled. Marengo Post will report on planting outcomes and any legislative action as the season progresses.